Nobody knows the future - and it doesn’t matter!
October 17th, 2008
Nobody knows the future.
That’s a hard but crucial lesson to learn.
If even ultimate insiders like Greenspan, Bernanke, and Paulson don’t know the future, then neither does Jim Cramer, your stockbroker, Nostradamus, nor you.
We have a human need for certainty that desperately yearns to believe that someone can turn our future from unknown to known.
Even if we logically understand that it’s impossible, we’re emotionally sucked back in and fooled again when someone important tells us with such conviction what the future will hold.
But nobody knows the future.
Some people predict so many things, so when the random future lands on their number they can say, “See! I told you!” But how many times did they say so, and it didn’t come true? (Like the joke, “He correctly predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions.”)
Our pleasure-seeking brains remember the times in our past when we were right, and forget when we were wrong. So it’s easy to think we’re smarter than we are.
Every time I speak on a panel, the moderator has to ask, “What’s the future of the music business?”
My first thought is always, “Nobody knows. Anyone who pretends to know is not to be trusted.” (And, even the ultimate insiders, the heads of every major record label, got it wrong.)
But then my thoughts turn to whoever is asking the question.
Why should it matter what anyone says?
Realistically, what would you change about what you’re doing, day-to-day?
And so it comes back to fundamentals.
Just like we know there will be gravity, and water will still be wet, there are laws that don’t depend on predicting the future.
- You know that people love a memorable melody.
- You can’t know what instrumentation or production-values will be in vogue.
- You know that people prefer people who make an emotional connection with them.
- You can’t know what technology will carry that communication.
- You know that writing lots of songs increases your chances of writing a hit.
- You can’t know which song will be a hit.
So the best thing to do instead of predicting the future is to focus on the fundamentals that never fluctuate.
If you’re a songwriter, write at least a song a week, always aiming for a memorable melody and words that make an emotional connection.
If you’re a performer, make weekly improvements on your ability to captivate an audience, and make a goal of really connecting with 10 new people every week.
The details are unique to you, and will change constantly. But the real point will never change.
Such a nice article.Its very true that in this world nobody can tell what is going to happen in future.Instead of believing in odd predictions try to focus on your hard work.
Thanks.
Great job breaking the industry down to the important fundamentals!
…So does this mean my crystal ball’s been lying to me …darn.
JK, great article, thanks for the reminder.
Nice article Derek…
The only thing we can be sure of is the present moment… the past is a mirage, and the future may never come…
thanks for your ongoing inspiration…
Who doesn’t like a safety net?! People thrive better when they have INSURANCE over their pending decisions and their futures. When they realize they can’t have that, they settle for the next best thing which is ASSURANCE. However, you are on point - the best predictor of future sucesses are the past successes. No need to reinvent the wheel - knowing the successful components or fundamentals takes a good chunk of the think and guess work out of the equation.
>>> Just like we know there will be gravity, and water will still be wet, there are laws that don’t depend on predicting the future.
Can somebody here please explain how is it that the invariance in space and time of the laws of physics is not an assumption ?
Derek, very good point, of course know one has the crystal ball, and it’s good advise to make music that you like to make, music that you enjoy listening too, because at the end of the day, if know one else buys or likes it, you still can enjoy it. Likely though, if you make it so you love it, many other like minded souls will as well, this has worked very well for me in my career ; )
Love it. Memorable melodies are in our souls forever. Basics and fundamentals are the cornerstone everything. Now I need to do what this email espouses.
–Who doesn’t like a safety net?! People thrive better when they have INSURANCE over their pending decisions and their futures–
The safety net is not completely investing your time and money in one answer because there is never any certainty. It’s a little paranoid, but people who are over-invested in CDs or even digital downloads for that matter (note: learn a lesson from 8-tracks and cassettes) are naive in general to think that the industry would stay stagnant for an extended period of time. I used to the see the slogan “Move On” during the 2000 election, but we need to wave that flag in the music industry to remind us to keep us on our toes.
As for asking the question,”do I know the future,” it wastes time. Instead make the future happen or become friends with the person who seems to be on the right track. And be ready to look ahead as soon as that comes to fruition.
Derek, yes, thanks. We don’t know, but we love our music and yes, we hope that others will too. I play “old peoples” music
and with the baby boomers getting
older and older, I have hopes
that my tunes will sell more and
more in the future and that my
grandchildren will love getting
a little check every month after I am gone!
Hey Sivers, I’ve been reading all your inputs and love them. Just had to say, thnx for all the great info, knowledge and perception. You’re awesome.
Cheers, Derek.
K.
>>>Can somebody here please explain how is it that the invariance in space and time of the laws of physics is not an assumption?
According to the Vedas, material things are temporary, but spiritual things are eternal. While the *manifestations* of the material energy are temporary and always changing, the *principle* of material creation is eternal, and therefore it is not an assumption that the basic laws of the material world are invariable, it is a well-known fact on which the whole process of creation, maintenance and dissolution of the material universe depends.
I’ve always lived by the motto” we pay for our own Laziness “. This means just keep doing it no matter what.
It’s funny as we get older we find out we know less than we thought we did.
Better to keep working at things and leave a mark with our works.
The moment I think I know something I find out I things have changed.
I know one thing. My wife will always be abusive so time for a new wife!
Ha ! Of course I could be wrong right?
Great article.
Cheers,
John David Hart
It’s always good to be reminded to get back to basics. It’s easy to get caught up in the moment & forget the important things.
Right on, Derek! I like how you put it.
People fret and worry about the music industry, but as my mentor Tom Hess says, music industry is one of the most consistent, enduring industries there is. It’s always been around, as long as there’s been societies.
Good music is always in demand. What appeals to people do change with trends, but fundamental emotional connection is timeless. Bach and Beethoven still rock, and so do the Beatles. Good music is always in demand. You can’t go wrong with good music.
ari
ps Here’s a blog post I wrote on this subject.
Hi Derek, Very good point and something to really think about. We might not be able to predict the future, but we still have to set goals for ourselves and try to achieve them. We can only do that by working hard towards a brighter future and if we do achieve our goals, then our perdiction have been answered. Is setting a goal a prediction? If so, then my predictions have been answered, do you think so?. Whats the logic on this?. Talk to me.
*I* know the future… and predict u will read this comment~~~
jk~
Great article, Derek… as usual
CK
…and predict I cannot spell my name correctly…~~~ -_-
“CJ”
I have a prediction for the future : music will always be of great value to the human race.
Melodies never die, they are floating around outer space being picked up by the ETs somewhere (probably) right now.
Nicely put Derek. Truth in your statements.
Your future is what you make it, work smart and you will made it
great comments!
all i can say is… if not now… when!
The best way to predict the future, is to create it.
Persistance is the key!
“When” is the only question.
Excellent!
Have you read The Black Swan? If you haven’t - pick it up now! Great stuff about how and why it’s impossible to predict the future based on the past, how we trick ourselves into predicting, and a lot more!
Inspiring. thanks for the reminder
You are right Derek … but i think that now it is much more difficult to have our song listened … than write one.
(listened .. not heared
Thanks Derek for your advice.
DEREK, THE UNKNOWN WILL ALWAYS SET THE TONE TO SEEK AND FIND OUT.THE ONLY WAY TO FIND SOMETHING OUT IS TO LIVE IN THE MOMENT OF WHATEVER IT IS THAT YOU ARE DOING AND KEEP MOVING FORWARD. I AM SO GLAD THAT YOU POSTED YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE FUTURE OF THE MUSIC. NONE OF US KNOWS,WE JUST HAVE TO LIVE IT AND EXPERIENCE IT.
DRE’ROCK
MARGURITE MCDONALD MUSIC INC.
Derek all of these articles incl. this one is of great benefit to me. Thank you for all the hard work you do in helping independant artist like me. Greatly appreciated. Keep up the good work. Thankyou for all you do…Sincerely, ron curtis
Derek, I agree with your statement about “keep on writing new songs” You NEVER know that the next song could be a hit or do really well. I write to inspire people through my lyrics. This is my goal more then becoming a hit. But I do know the more I write the better I become at it. Thanks for helping us. ron curtis
Thank you for this article. But also, thank you for caring enough to spend time and energy helping all of us. Your advice is always framed in such a way as to be valuable regardless of how we perceive it.
Thank you for being you.
T.C.
Quoting David Bruce Hughes :
>>> According to the Vedas, material things are temporary, but spiritual things are eternal. While the *manifestations* of the material energy are temporary and always changing, the *principle* of material creation is eternal, and therefore it is not an assumption that the basic laws of the material world are invariable, it is a well-known fact on which the whole process of creation, maintenance and dissolution of the material universe depends.
Clever, but to me you’re making the same mistake of non-finality. Haven’t you simply moved the assumption from “space-time invariance” to “authority of the Vedic laws” ?
i really needed to hear that i have gone to so many events, conferences, i went to berklee and i have had success but sometimes its the small consistent weekly accomplishments.
Good article! I take issue with the statement that noone knows the future as there is one book that gave over 300 specific predictions of one person’s live - all fulfilled. Yea, it was the Bible so there must be something there! But as far as the music industry, I agree with you 100% as it has changed so much already, who knows where it’s going!(If I get any inside info though I’ll let you know! Ha!)
Thanks for the reminder, Derek!
Thank U for info Mr.Silvers :
I’m apart of the 21 century with my music because of CDbaby.com I have been reading the books on your list . My next CD will be a reflection of that . My Cd did’nt sale a lot on your website ,but it gives me a business since and I did sale some .I
Thank You,Musically your David Gordon
the truth of the matter is True Artists are going to do what they do any way and hope one hundred years from now some one pays attention to their work. That’s all we got in the face of failure to make a profit from todays music market. Lets not forget Vincent Van Go.
IMHO, part of the problem is how technology and current events impacted the formation of great musicians and songwriters. In the 70’s we did not have inexpensive home recording technology and the few good recording studios were usually reserved for record labels who paid for artists to record, and these artists did not even make it to their doors until the band had a proven track record and following, by gigging and touring, and had developed their skills to the extent a record company would be willing to foot the bill for a top notch studio and promotions, remember, there was no internet for free myspace promos, just traditional advertising, which at the time was very expensive. That weeded out the so-so, part-time bands and artists and left us with only the best who made it into the record stores.
Back then most musicians still could make a living full time by gigs and teaching, so they had more time to devote to honing their skills and to compose epic pieces of music. As time went by, I also witnessed a lot of venues that traditionally hosted live music moving into DJs(again, another result of cheap stereos and portable gear), weddings started using DJs, and the opportunities for fulltime musos(like me at the time) were quickly dissapearing as more clubs moved away from hiring live bands.
Now we have a “Triple-Whammy”, as technology brings us the downloadable MP3, and there are SO MANY amateur part-time bands flooding the airwaves(which now also include indie internet radio), what happens is a sort of “Future Shock”(Alvin Toffler) where there are way too many choices of music, and the music scene becomes completely fragmented into so many pieces, it is so hard to find the gems out there….
CDBaby is a great alternative for the changing times, although I fear music is being so commoditized that it will be more like cable TV, in that you will pay for the stream of music, instead of buying individual artist CDs. This in turn will make it even harder for bands to stand out or to get paid royalties.. I see a return to bands playing in live clubs, having to earn a proven following and reputation, before they can try to sell any music, and maybe even consider that gigging is a good outlet and look at a CD as just a promotional tool to drive fans to your gigs ??
I miss the golden days of super bands like Steely Dan, Led Zeppelin, Yes, Genesis, etc…, but unfortunately this is a new era with new challenges for all of us, and very few musicians have the same environment that engendered so many giants… I am sure there are some mega musical souls who will still prevail, but their sandbox is now very fragmented and they won’t be coddled by those who see the next Brittney as the only sure ticket to high volume sales….
Derek,
I can predict the future.
I know if I tell my boss at my day job that he can go F@#k himself.
I won’t have a day job anymore! Kidding aside, I have to agree with you, that you can’t predict the future.
I work at a hose plant during the day, we make rubber hose for cars.(and Yes, I’m a hoser?)
Well, guess what? I got laid off because nobody wants to buy an American car anymore.
Hmm, I saw this coming months ago too, that is why I am writing a new book called “How to eat for free at you’re local food Market”. Which will soon be a major motion picture premiering at a theatre near you!
Ha! I do want to thank you though
because the insight you’ve given me
might help my possible music career. Gotta 5 spot I can borrow?
Saturation will keep occurring once the population keeps rising in the music industry so with this being understood. It only makes sense that it would hard for anyone to know what happens in the music industry for the future. Only time could tell.
The present is guitar
the future is more guitar:-)
The K.I.S.S. principal in it’s easy to understand form. Emotional connection with people through song & keep writing new material. Big Hugs to you, Derek, for the torch you carry…to all of us.
The future is in your(our) heart,in humans feelings(emotions).Love is the only future.The future is to follow your instint,to listen to your heart.The future is to continue working, to be there happens what happens.
The future of the musical industry is more than a need, is a human being need.
Because music will always be the link between human souls and human lifes,the musical industry will be the away to bring it to people,it doesn’t matter the way we use to do it,the fact is that We need music to preserve our lifes, to improve together our souls and the human being existance. We can not survive without the communication of this two important elements.
Jean Paul said: Love will never pass away,so, music as a result of love,will never pass away either.
The future will create the way to protect it, thanks love.
Blad Labori
Hey Derek,
I agree. Great point! I think that we have a tendency to play it too safe today and don’t have the nerve to take chances, so we want a sure shot. Record companys too. Copying what someone else did to increase chances of having a hit song.
And there is no such thing as a shure shot in art except most nudity and profanity increases ones chances to a degree. Honesty is the best policy to me.
Thank you for you great wisdom,
Marc Vee
Well you got my attention. I let you know the end result.
Derek: Why worry about the future the past was amazing the present is interesting and the future will be a surprise to us all. Music connects us to our humanity let us all use it to this positive objective. In other words ROCK ON!
Derek, Your comments describe the discipline of “showing up!” Yes, in this way, what deeply moves within us can then be given voice. Why do we sing, dance, write, draw? An innate response to life, to what stirs..and it is this that is our security. Only now am I finding the freedom of this knowing not .just listening and moving as I am moved. And our future does depend upon our actions. Whether security is a part of it…I don’t know. But, I do know that the more we show up, the more we connect in and are led.
This reinforces my belief, I just keep doing what I’m doing, making music. I’m hopefully making music that others like, but I’m also pleasing myself, because I like to make music.
Dear Derek!
Just right on the spot. Love your recent posts!
Getting back into the present moment is the only way to find all the information you need for the future.
Peter
Why, as a composer and performer I can underline your statement that the people really appreciate a well written melody that is memorable and a gripping text with some real emotions! It’s better to get a little kitschy from time to time in your song lyrics than to show no emotions at all! The young composers should put a lot of attention into doing just this! (If they don’t wanna end in a musical niche where nobody listens to them!)
Mark Stanton
(Mark Stanton and The Dogsters)
Dear Derek,
I have been grateful to you ever since you started CDBaby.com and am thankful for all your good advice to me and to the young people who are starting out.. I have been singing and recording for more than 70 years. I can’t believe it myself but I get up in the morning and start working, contacting, getting my music out, and it works.Music does not age. there is change in taste, and that is good. It’s life and things change, but if you have a good product, its lasting. I am still selling and have made so many friends.
Music is the best communicator there is and it is very satisfying to touch another person and have them enjoy what you do.
Thank you again for your insight and for your generous spirit.
hugs, Betty
“Why should it matter what anyone says?”
- Follow your gutt feeling and watch what happens.
- Jump and the net will appear.
Awesome, Derek! It’s great to get reminded of how we need to stay focused on the basic stuff and not worry about the bigger picture. Do what you do, the best you can, and you’ll make it happen. Thanks for sharing!
Lee
Great stuff!
Begs the question….does the future even exist,outside of our imagination?
John
Good point! I once had a dream that my mom cut off the middle finger on her right hand, then walked up to me, clutching it, asking if I could drive her to the hospital. I wrote down the dream and everything.
A few days later, she was mowing the lawn, reached down to get a stick out of it, and cut off the tip of her middle finger on her right hand, clutched a cloth to it tightly, then walked over to the neighbor’s house to ask if they could drive her to the hospital.
So, did I create that future? Did it happen because I dreamed it? Or was it going to happen anyway, and somehow in my dream I saw it?
Life is awesome.
This website was very true. It got me back on track by realizing that no matter how fickle the music business may be, the fundamentals are always there.
Derek, te estas transformando en mi guru (ja ja ja) y siempre tus articulos y comentarios son un jugo vitaminico en este largo camino. Now in english… Derek you are becoming my GURU ( ja ja ja) and the comments and articles you write are a big vitamin juice in this long way of music… I agree with you, nobody will come to do our job and it’s true that is in the little things we do every day about our music that will bring succes… So thank you and we’ll keep in touch!
focus on the fundamentals! yes, yes… I need to print that out and tape it to my wall. it’s just so darn easy to get distracted or even pulled away by everything. I know it’s possible, and I can and will do it! thanks for all these articles which help keep us all on track…
E’ vero nessuno conosce il futuro quindi bisogna lavorare e sperare di farlo bene.Quando arriverà il futuro sapremo se avremo lavorato bene.
Derek’s genuine from the heart; thanks Derek! You’re one of the good ‘uns.
Derek I really enjoy your comments and deep thoughts. This will make me a better song writer. Carroll Jenkins, Charlotte,N.C.
My big question: when I upload my music to the internet musicsites, shall I upload the whole track or just a one or two minutes sample?
I think consumers will never buy a track if they can just hear the whole song on the net.
What is your opinion?
Greetings from Denmark
Attila Kovacs - musician songwriter
Definitely the whole track.
Hey Derek!
What I do know is that, in my little world, the people around me and some far away are waiting for us to finish our cd and send it to them. So in a small circle of people, the music lives and they love it.. If we get to move farther and farther in our influence that is up to destiny …. I am thankful for touching the few with our music, it still lives…
Have a great day Derek!
Rachel
yes is true
I’m in total agreement with this article. We certainly don’t know the future we can only view trends and consumer behavior based on how we deliver and promote a product or idea and if it catches, we run with it for as long as possible. Connecting with the human emotion to me is the way. There are a lot of great ideas for delivering music and I think we should simply try and be involved in as much of it as possible. Be available in as many places and formats possible.
Mobile media technology has certainly been a big part of the future of music.
Thank you for your suggestion to my question no.62, Derek. I really appreciate
Attila
It is a known fact that nobody can predict the future. What we can do to make sure that our future, what ever it will turn out to be, will be the best that we can make it is to live in harmony with the laws that govern the universe, See it all here!==> http://www.apocalypsenot.net
Charley Waco
Thank you Derek for your insight. It seems that you always have some great answers or even questions that get our brains to working in areas they should be thinking. The help is much appreciated.
RW
Derek, my pleasure to put this to you as you may be able to use it.
How many times does a person tell themselves something “CANT” be done and thus prove themselves RIGHT should ever they are caused to attempt to do it. Thats the same/similar to the placebo effect in reverse, many a wise man has said you become what you think about but remember also you DON’T become what you don’t think about.
“Fortune Telling” is a derivative of an ART of knowing oneself which should be forever unfolding a part of the future KNOWN and UNKNOWN alas which has been lost to most.
Respects.
OZ
People say , do this, do that, to get your music out there. Plan your future! Who’s got that much time? I use to have a need [when I was younger] to be accepted or like by people, help people find themselves and learn to help others. I found I could help more people by showing my emotions in my music to a larger audience. The hard thing is finding the magic,creating the words and harmonic tones to reach that place where songs just volunteer themselves . It happens when you believe it can happen. I am a slave to my art because it completes me, but the masses are asses caught in a war of white noise. I touch souls with my sound, when they get it or maybe finally listen, Maybe because at that moment, they needed something real, original, new and fresh. Some [most] will request their top 40 favorite. I know that’s their way of saying I heard you ,,your good enough ,,you could probably play my song. Ouch! Let me spill out my guts to you some more! O-boy!! We are all programed by what we hear. Step out of the box!! F*#k that! There is no box,,believe it and the universe is yours or at lease what you need. Cuz,, ‘All you need is LOVE.’ Well, maybe also some compassion and of course money. Thats where the masses come in.
The older I get, the more quite time I need to hear myself think. Who am I?
Your article help me realize I am more of a writer than a performer. Do what your good at or enjoy more, Even if it means being poor with no recognition of ever existing in the music industry. You can’t do everything. But we try and get caught, not having enough time to just ,,,be,,,human. Put that in a bag and sell it!
This is such a good post, and I've been thinking similar thoughts lately about the desire–including my own–to want to have predictability about the future. Related to the need to hear speculation about it. And how many gasbags on TV waste precious time in this very domain.
Gasbags on TV…yeah.
Coloring our nightmares and giving our children attention disorders and teaching them horrible behaviours and keeping us from peace as it keeps us convinced everyone everywhere has more than we do.
Start getting your news online from Google and stop watching TV; soon you’ll be aware that most of us have FAR MORE than we ever imagined, once we learn how other people have lived throughout history.
We finally stopped watching completely about six months ago. We don’t even like TV any more, but we’re sure getting a whole lot more done, and improving our minds by reading books too.
The programs aren’t all horrible, but the constant advertising…eeewh!
..recently the Nielson people actually called; they had trouble ‘getting it’ that we really do not have a favorite program, but when I asked if they will really put it down that we do not watch tv by choice, the man said he would!
Now we don’t wonder any more if they really exist, or are just an urban legend…